摘要
In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress - including modifications to animal management or housing - tend to increase production costs and capital expenditures. Dairy cows are particularly sensitive to heat stress, and the dairy sector has been estimated to bear over half of the costs of current heat stress to the livestock industry. In this report, we use operation-level economic data coupled with finely scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects U.S. dairies effectiveness at producing outputs with a given level of inputs. We use this information to estimate the potential decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change-induced heat stress. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat stress-related production declines over the next 20 years, with the largest declines occurring in the South.
摘要译文
在美国，气候变化可能会增加平均日常温度和热浪频率，从而减少动物的肉类和奶类产量。畜牧生产者用来减轻热应激的方法 - 包括改变动物管理或住房 - 往往会增加生产成本和资本支出。奶牛对热应激特别敏感，估计乳制品行业承担了当前对畜牧业的热应力成本的一半以上。在本报告中，我们使用运营级经济数据和精细尺度的气候数据来估算当地热环境如何影响美国乳制品在产生一定投入水平的产出方面的有效性。我们利用这些信息来估计2030年因气候变化引起的热应激导致的牛奶产量下降。对于四种气候模型场景，结果表明，在未来20年内，与温度压力相关的适度产量下降，其中南部出现了最大幅度的下降。
Key, N.; Sneeringer, S.; Marquardt, D.. Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production.[R]. US: PB, 2014