摘要
India is accounting for almost 20 percent of total milk production in the world and 70 percent of this share is coming from small, marginal farmers and landless people of the country residing in rural areas and this shows that dairy industry has an important role in social and economic development in India. Dairy is growing with a positive rate as per capita availability has reached to 375 (gms/day) in 2017-18 from 178 (gms/day) in 1990-91. In this study, time series data (2001-02 to 2015-16) on milk production and different milching species population of Chhattisgarh have been used to find out the suitable forecasting models for milk production and population of these mulching animals of Chhattisgarh. To meet the objective of study different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been tried and among all ARIMA (0,2,0) model has been found more suitable for production of milk in India and Chhattisgarh both. Availability of milk is forecasted suitably by ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA(0,1,1) for India and Chhattisgarh respectively. Similarly different ARIMA models have been fitted for population of different species animals. By this study milk production is expected to reach 219.73 MMT and 1.599 MMT by 2022-23 in India and Chhattisgarh respectively.
摘要译文
印度占世界牛奶总产量的近20％，70％的这一份额来自居住在农村地区的小，边际农民和土着人民，这表明乳制品行业在社会中具有重要作用和印度经济发展。乳制品以2017 - 1991年（GMS / Day）于1990 - 91年从178年（GMS /日）达到375（GMS /日），乳业正在增长。在本研究中，时间序列数据（2001-02至2015-16）对牛奶生产和不同的丘疹种群的Chhattisgarh人口已被用于找到适用于Chhattisgarh的这些覆盖动物的牛奶生产和人口的适当预测模型。为满足研究的目标，不同的自回归综合移动平均线（Arima）模型已经尝试，并且在所有Arima（0,2,0）中被发现更适合在印度和Chhattisgarh生产的牛奶生产。 Arima（0,2,1）和Arima（0,1,1）分别适用于印度和Chhattisgarh的牛奶的可用性。类似地，不同的Arima模型已经适用于不同物种动物的群体。通过这项研究，预计牛奶产量将分别在印度和Chhattisgarh 2022-23达到219.73 mmt和1.599mmt。
P. Mishra; Chellai Fatih; H.K. Niranjan; Shiwani Tiwari; Monika Devi; Anurag Dubey. Modelling and Forecasting of Milk Production in Chhattisgarh and India[J]. Indian Journal Of Animal Research, 2020,54(7): 912-917