摘要
The ruff Philomachus pugnax, a lekking shorebird wintering in Africa and breeding across northern Eurasia, declined severely in its western range. Based on a capture-mark-resighting programme (2004–2011) in the westernmost staging area in Friesland (the Netherlands), we investigated changes in apparent annual survival in relation to age and sex to explore potential causes of decline. We also related temporal variation in apparent survival to environmental factors. We used the Capture-Mark-Recapture multievent statistical framework to overcome biases in survival estimates after testing for hidden heterogeneity of detection. This enabled the estimation of the probability to belong to high or low detectability classes. Apparent survival varied between years but was not related to weather patterns along the flyway, or to flood levels in the Sahel. Over time, a decline in apparent survival is suggested. Due to a short data series and flag loss in the last period this cannot be verified. Nevertheless, the patterns in sex-specific detectability and survival lead to new biological insights. Among highly detectable birds, supposedly most reliant on Friesland, males survived better than females (\(\bar{\phi }_{\text{HD males}}\) = 0.74, range 0.51–0.93; \(\bar{\phi }_{\text{HD females}}\) = 0.51, range 0.24–0.81). Among low detectable birds, the pattern is reversed (\(\bar{\phi }_{\text{LD males}}\) = 0.64, range 0.37–0.89; \(\bar{\phi }_{\text{LD females}}\) = 0.73, range 0.48–0.93). Probably the staging population contains a mixture of sex-specific migration strategies. A loss of staging females could greatly affect the dynamics of the western ruff population. Further unravelling of these population processes requires geographically extended demographic monitoring and the use of tracking devices. KeywordsCapture-mark-resight E-SURGE Heterogeneity of detection Multievent models Philomachus pugnax Staging behaviour
摘要译文
围脖Philomachus pugnax，一个lekking水鸟越冬在非洲和欧亚大陆北部繁殖，在它的西部范围严重下降基于捕获 - 标记 - resighting计划（2004-2011）在西部的暂存区域弗里斯兰省（荷兰），我们研究了年龄和性别变化表观年度存活有关探索declineWe的潜在的原因也与在表观存活时间变化到环境因素我们使用捕捉，标志重捕multievent统计框架检验检测隐藏的异质性后，克服生存的估计偏差这使概率估计属于高还是低可探测classesApparent生存的年变化，而是沿着迁徙路线是不相关的天气模式，或者在SahelOver时洪水位，在生存期明显下降是suggestedDue以短数据系列标志损失的最后阶段，这不可能是verifiedNevertheless，在性别特异性探测和生存模式导致新的生物insightsAmong高度可检测的鸟，据说最依赖弗里斯兰省，幸存下来的男性比女性（\\（\\栏{\\披} _ {\\文{HD男性}} \\）\x3d 0范围0€3更好; \\（\\栏{\\披} _ {\\文{HD女性}} \\）\x3d 0范围0€1）在低检测鸟，该模式是相反的（\\（\\栏{\\披} _ {\\文{LD男性}} \\）\x3d 0范围0€9; \\（\\栏{\\披} _ {\\ {文本女LD} } \\）\x3d 0范围0€3）也许分期人口中含有的雌性升级性，特定迁移strategiesA损失的混合可能会极大地影响了西部围脖人口动态这些人口进程的进一步瓦解，需要在地理上延伸的人口统计监测和使用跟踪装置检测Multievent车型Philomachus pugnax临时行为KeywordsCapture标志-resight E-SURGE异质
Lucie Emilie Schmaltz [1] Cédric Juillet [2] Joost Marius Tinbergen [1] Yvonne Ingje Verkuil [1] Joslyn Corstiaan Elbert Wouter Hooijmeijer [1] Theunis Piersma [1] [3]. Apparent annual survival of staging ruffs during a period of population decline: insights from sex and site-use related differences[J]. Population Ecology, 2015,57(4): 613-624