摘要
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) worldwide are experiencing obvious changes under the combined impacts of global warming, eutrophication, and other driving forces. In the East China Sea (ECS), large-scale blooms caused by dinoflagellates occurred since 2000 and there has been an apparent shift of bloom-causative microalgae from diatoms to dinoflagellates. To predict the future evolution of HABs in this region, a model was developed based on the competition between diatoms and dinoflagellates, which would serve to reproduce the seasonal succession of microalgal blooms driven by multiple environmental factors. The evolution features of HABs were then projected under different scenarios of eutrophication and global warming. Under the ‘business as usual’ scenario, dinoflagellate blooms are expected to become more frequent with higher peak biomass concentrations over the next 30 years. Changes in nutrient composition of the Changjiang riverine discharge may largely give rise to this phenomenon, and accelerated warming associated with climate change may result in earlier occurrence of dinoflagellate blooms. To prevent further intensification of dinoflagellate blooms, efforts could be made to reduce nitrogen inputs and maintain or even increase silicate inputs from the Changjiang river.
摘要译文
在全球变暖，富营养化和其他驱动力的综合影响下，全球有害的藻华（HAB）正在经历明显的变化。在东中国（ECS）中，自2000年以来发生了由鞭毛藻引起的大规模花朵，并且显然可以将绽放的微藻从硅藻转移到鞭毛藻。为了预测该地区HAB的未来演变，基于硅藻和鞭毛鞭毛盐之间的竞争开发了一个模型，这将有助于再现由多个环境因素驱动的微藻花的季节性继承。然后在富营养化和全球变暖的不同情况下投射了HAB的进化特征。在“照常业务”的情况下，预计随着未来30年的峰值生物质浓度，鞭毛藻植物有望变得更加频繁。长江河流排放的营养成分的变化可能会大大引起这种现象，并且与气候变化相关的加速变暖可能会导致早期发生鞭毛藻花朵。为了防止鞭毛藻植物的进一步加强，可以努力减少氮输入，并维持甚至增加从长江河的硅酸盐输入。
Zheng-Xi Zhou[a][b][c];Ren-Cheng Yu[a][b][c][d];Ming-Jiang Zhou[a]. Evolution of harmful algal blooms in the East China Sea under eutrophication and warming scenarios[J]. Water Research, 2022,221